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  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    "NathanSpencer" asks, via Twitter appropriately:

    "Are tools like Twitter and Facebook really helping candidates GOTV? Who is using it best?"

    I've seen no evidence of it helping in any significant way with GOTV in any local elections, and have heard few if any convincing tales from elsewhere. I'd love to hear from anyone who has experience to the contrary, though.

    Read More

  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Alice Mitchell" asks:

    "What do you think about the Newton race now that it's down to Ruth Balser and Setti Warren?"

    It's a very interesting race, that I haven't followed closely enough for anyone to trust my prediction. Warren (w/ campaign mastermind Deb Shaw) has been very impressive, but I think ultimately Balser's got too much built-up good will in the town. I say she wins -- but we haven't seen the last of Setti Warren.

  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Here's a great question, from "Sammy":

    Who are your favorite political staffs to deal with, whether it be mayor's office, city council, state, etc?

    Before I answer, I want to say that I've just realized that our snazzy new blog format is not showing that I am indenting the questions in these answer posts, like the one above.

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  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Ed" asks via email:

    Give us your predictions for the mayoral final (with percentages) and the order the At-Large candidates will finish.

    Menino 54% Flaherty 46%

    Connolly-Arroyo-Pressley-Murphy-Jackson-Kenneally-Bennett-Gonzalez

  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    The Qs keep coming! "Venkman" asks:

    Do you think emailgate will make its way into the Senate race? Could Coakley's dismissal of the issue become an issue?

    I think emailgate (the heavily reported issue surrounding missing emails within the Menino administration) has barely made its way into the mayoral race, beyond that core group of people who really, really care about that kind of thing -- who were voting against Menino anyway.

    Read More

  • October 02, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Here we go, off and running with Ask Me Anything Day! First up, "Rob" asks:

    If Menino defeats Flaherty in November's election, does Flaherty become the immediate front-runner for the 2013 mayoral election? What are your thoughts on what Sam Yoon does? I'm also interested on which current candidates (Menino or Flaherty) other potential 2013 candidates are supporting/endorsing, and if you think that affects their future chances at all.

    Read More

  • October 01, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    We got our first one-on-one mayoral debate tonight. I thought Michael Flaherty was very good, but Tom Menino was quite good, and as far as I know he's holding the lead in the late innings, so I'd say the mayor came out fine.

    Speaking of innings, how psyched must Menino be that the Sox made the playoffs, so nobody in town could possibly find themselves accidentally taking interest in the mayoral race.

    Read More

  • October 01, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Boston City Council president Mike Ross confirms for me that his chief-of-staff, Reuben Kantor, is leaving to join the Ayanna Pressley campaign for at-large city council.

    Kantor, who joined the political arena just a few years ago, has quickly become one of the city's top progressive operatives. "Ayanna will really benefit from Reuben's strength on both the political and the policy side," says Ross, who endorsed Pressley the night of the preliminary election.

    Read More

  • September 30, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I analyze the at-large Boston City Council race coming out ofthe preliminary election, which narrowed the field to eight. I find that local politicos believe that -- unlike other recent at-large races -- the top four in the preliminary will end up as the four winners in November.

    Read More

  • September 23, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Hmmm... Seems like some commenters don't appreciate my expert analysis. Oh well.

    Anyway, let's back up and look at what I prognosticated and analyzed the last time I was asked, about a month ago -- and whether it still stands. First off:

    I think that the prelim top four will likely be Murphy-Connolly-Pressley-Arroyo.

    Read More

  • September 09, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Man, I do love me some political theater. I went looking for some at an at-large Boston City Council forum earlier this evening at Roxbury Community College, but the poorly-promoted event had more candidates on stage than voters in the audience (this may actually have been literally true, once you subtract the press and candidates' aides from the audience).

    Read More

  • September 09, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I have an article looking at what's at stake for Tom Menino in the upcoming preliminary election. Sure, he's going to cruise to victory, and a spot on the final ballot. But what will it take for the city to decide that Menino is unbeatable, and let him coast to November; and what will it take for the city to decide that he's beatable, and give him a real fight? The answer may be a simple number: 50%.

    Read More

  • September 09, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Last week, in a "Who might run" Senate overview post, I suggested that we might see:

    A Chris Gabrieli type. Massachusetts has got civic-minded, policy-minded people outside the elected-office circuit, loaded with money. I don't see Gabrieli as a candidate for this one (although who knows?), but I've got a couple of other possible names in mind.

    Read More

  • September 08, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    The at-large candidates for Boston City Council are heading into the final stretch to the preliminary election -- time to spend some of what little they've got. In past years, challengers have sometimes erred in spending too heavily on the prelim their first time out (Pat White and John Connolly, to name names), only to find that prelim positioning didn't mean all that much in the end.

    Read More

  • September 03, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    Martha Coakley announced her candidacy for US Senate today, to nobody's surprise. Which, for political junkies like us, begs the question of what happens with the Attorney General office if she wins.

    First off, if Coakley wins the election, then her first assistant becomes acting AG. That's David Friedman, who is generally well-thought-of but is an unknown quantity as far as a potential statewide political figure.

    Read More

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Boston Phoenix
Q&A #9 -- Social Media For GOTV
Published 10/2/2009 by David S. Bernstein
"NathanSpencer" asks, via Twitter appropriately: "Are tools like Twitter and Facebook really helping candidates GOTV? Who is using it best?" I've seen no evidence of...

Boston Phoenix
Q&A #7 -- Balser vs. Warren
Published 10/2/2009 by David S. Bernstein
"Alice Mitchell" asks: "What do you think about the Newton race now that it's down to Ruth Balser and Setti Warren?" It's a very interesting...

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