Hmmm... Seems like some commenters don't appreciate my expert analysis. Oh well.
Anyway, let's back up and look at what I prognosticated and analyzed the last time I was asked, about a month ago -- and whether it still stands. First off:
I think that the prelim top four will likely be Murphy-Connolly-Pressley-Arroyo.
I wasn't predicting order there, just the names. Next:
Those will be no surprise -- so the 'news' of the prelim will be one or two others who do better than expected; they will get a burst of attention, as Sam Yoon did when he did well in the 2005 prelim.
I think that's correct, and Kenneally and Jackson are the two. Next:
Those in the 'next four' in the prelim will be looking for one of the 'top four' to knock out. The incumbents will probably look too strong, and nobody's going to want to target the only woman. That means they'll go after Arroyo.
Which is the point I reiterated last night. The impressive gap between Arroyo and Pressley could make you think otherwise, but I think there are a whole bunch of reasons to think that Pressley is now pretty much safe and secure. I'll give you just two to mull on for the moment: John Kerry and Joe Kennedy, her two former employers, who are likely to now step in to help her raise money and perhaps more.
Now look, I promise you I've got nothing against Felix G. Arroyo. I don't think you'll find that I've criticized him or belittled him or even made a snide comment about his hair on this blog or in the paper or in any media appearance.
I'm just saying that we now have four candidates -- Kenneally, Jackson, Bennett, and Gonzalez --who, in my opinion, have two options facing them: accept defeat and spend six weeks smiling while crying inside; or go to work trying to beat Arroyo out for a spot.
Continuing:
Also, you have to think about where the "lost votes" will go. That is, a lot of people will cast votes for candidates who don't get through the prelim. When they come to vote in the final, who will they use those votes on? My theory is that those voters will have already chosen whether or not to vote for the better-known candidates (ie, the prelim "top four"), and will disproportionately go to candidates earning a first look by virtue of getting through the primary.
Quick note: of the 39,784 "lost votes" Tuesday, 22,322 went to black candidates (Ezedi, Fortes, Sanon, Willis), 7682 to an Asian candidate (Nguyen), and 9780 to white candidates (Ryan, Trabucco).
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