Q&A #4 -- Intrade Odds

"Joey" asks:

On the InTrade exchange for the 2012 Republican Nomination for President, whose shares are currently undervalued/overvalued in your mind?

Ecellent question. Rounding off, here are the current Intrade numbers:

29% Mitt Romney

19% Tim Pawlenty

17% Jon Huntsman

7% Sarah Palin

6% Michele Bachmann

5% Rick Perry

5% Herman Cain

3% Chris Christie

2% each Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul

,,,and scattered 1% each or less for various others.

I continue to rank Pawlenty as most likely, over Romney, but more importantly I would say that those two together should capture a far greater share of the probability. I actually think Romney at around 30% (roughly 5-2 or 2-1 against) is probably fair, but I'd put Pawlenty closer to even-money, so I think that 19% (4-1 against) is a big overlay.

After that, I think Perry and Palin are far greater threats to win, even given the slim odds of them running, than Huntsman, Bachmann, or Cain even assuming they are all-in. I also think that, much as I may mock him (and much as I think he deserves the mockery), Newt Gingrich has an arguable, if highly unlikely, pathway to victory, which is far more than I would say for those three or Giuliani, Paul, and others. So if you're looking for long shots, I'd look at Perry, Palin, and Gingrich. But overall I think the best money right now is Pawlenty.